COP31 and Zero Waste: What Türkiye's Climate Diplomacy Agenda Looks Like

Why It Matters

Türkiye's climate diplomacy now rests on three connected tracks: the Zero Waste initiative, the 2053 net-zero target, and hosting the 31st UN climate conference (COP31) in Antalya in 2026. The first has UN recognition, the second sets the long-term trajectory, and the third gives Ankara a platform to shape the global negotiating agenda. How credible the three are together depends on Türkiye's near-term emissions policy, the climate finance it can access, and how the COP31 arrangement works in practice.

This explainer sets out the verifiable record, the positions of other governments and civil society in their own words, and Türkiye's stated policy. Where a COP31 detail is not yet settled in formal UNFCCC documents, we say so rather than assert it.

Background

The UNFCCC framework and Türkiye's status

The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rests on 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities' (Article 3). Türkiye was listed in Annex I (industrialised countries and economies in transition) when the Convention was adopted. The 2001 Marrakesh Accords (decision 26/CP.7) removed Türkiye from Annex II, the list of countries with financial obligations to developing states, and invited Parties to recognise its 'special circumstances', which differ from those of other Annex I Parties. This status explains much of Ankara's later diplomacy on finance and classification.

The Paris Agreement and the 2053 target

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits Parties to hold warming well below 2°C and pursue 1.5°C, through nationally determined contributions (NDCs) updated every five years. Türkiye signed in April 2016 but delayed ratification for five years. On 22 September 2021, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the UN General Assembly that Türkiye would seek net-zero emissions by 2053 and would move to ratify. The Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM) approved ratification on 6 October 2021, and Türkiye became a Party in November 2021.

The 2023 updated NDC set a 2030 goal of a 41% reduction against a business-as-usual baseline, with emissions peaking by 2038 at the latest. Because the reference is a projected baseline, not a historical base year, analysts debate how it translates into absolute emissions. In July 2025 the TBMM adopted a national Climate Law, which provides a legal basis for an emissions trading system and for domestic climate governance; consult the Official Gazette text for exact provisions.

Zero Waste: from national programme to UN resolution

The Zero Waste Project was launched in 2017 under the patronage of First Lady Emine Erdoğan and coordinated by the Ministry of Environment (now the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change). A national regulation followed in 2019. In November 2020 the UN Secretary-General established a high-level Zero Waste Advisory Board, chaired by Emine Erdoğan. On 14 December 2022 the General Assembly adopted resolution A/RES/77/161, proclaiming 30 March the International Day of Zero Waste, first observed in 2023 and facilitated by UNEP and UN-Habitat. A marine strand, 'Zero Waste Blue', was launched in 2021; it connects to Türkiye's maritime governance work covered in The Blue Homeland Briefing File: Türkiye's 2025 Marine Spatial Planning and the IOC-UNESCO Registration.

How COP31 came to Antalya

UN climate conferences rotate among regional groups. The 2026 slot belongs to the Western European and Others Group (WEOG), where Türkiye and Australia both put forward bids. The group did not reach consensus for some time. At COP30 in Belém (November 2025), the two governments announced a compromise that was then reflected in the conference process: COP31 takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, with Türkiye holding the COP presidency and Australia holding a role in leading negotiations, plus a pre-COP meeting in the Pacific. The exact titles, functions and dates are defined in UNFCCC decisions and host-country arrangements, so the formal documents should be treated as authoritative over press summaries. Antalya already hosts the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum, which Türkiye uses as a convening platform.

Key Players & Positions

• Australia: Its government has described the arrangement as sharing responsibility for the negotiating agenda while elevating Pacific island concerns, notably through the Pacific pre-COP. Its own ministerial statements are the primary source for how Canberra frames its role.
• Pacific island states: Through the Pacific Islands Forum and AOSIS statements, they have stressed adaptation finance, loss and damage, and sea-level threats, and have welcomed a Pacific pre-COP as a way to keep these issues central.
• European Union: The EU's official climate statements, including its Green Deal and 2040 target discussions, emphasise fossil-fuel phase-out and carbon pricing. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) also affects Turkish exporters, because the EU is Türkiye's largest trading partner; Ankara's trade and environment ministries have raised the issue in official communications.
• UNFCCC Secretariat and UN system: The Secretariat administers host-country agreements. UNEP and UN-Habitat co-facilitate the International Day of Zero Waste under resolution A/RES/77/161.
• Civil society: Climate Action Tracker (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute) has rated Türkiye's targets and policies in its lowest or near-lowest categories in recent assessments; check its current country page for the latest rating. Greenpeace and Turkish environmental groups point to continued coal investment, and to European plastic waste exported to Türkiye, which Ankara responded to with tighter import rules from 2021. Some advocates welcome COP31 as an opportunity for greater domestic accountability.

Source Comparison

Both sets of sources agree on several facts: the 2053 target exists, resolution A/RES/77/161 was adopted, and COP31 will be held in Antalya. They differ on how to judge progress, and on whether per-capita arguments or near-term trajectories should carry more weight. A fair reading uses official inventories submitted to the UNFCCC alongside independent trackers, a method set out in Editorial Principles: How Diplomatic Desk Sources, Attributes and Corrects.

Sister publications offer complementary angles, including Interstate Journal on COP31 in Antalya, Region Scope's explainer, Borders & Blocs, and Regional Balance's wider survey of Türkiye's global diplomacy.

Key Terms & Related Guides

• COP (Conference of the Parties): The UNFCCC's supreme decision-making body, meeting annually. The COP president chairs plenary sessions and guides negotiations.
• NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution): Each country's own climate pledge under Paris, updated every five years.
• Net zero: Balance between greenhouse gases emitted and removed; 2053 is Türkiye's target year.
• Annex I / Annex II: UNFCCC lists of industrialised countries (Annex I) and those with finance obligations (Annex II). Türkiye is in Annex I only, with special circumstances recognised in 2001.
• Zero Waste: A programme to prevent waste, expand reuse and recycling, and recover resources; recognised by the UN through resolution A/RES/77/161.
• CBAM: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, a carbon-related import charge affecting some Turkish exports.
• WEOG: The UN regional group that includes Türkiye and Australia and rotates the COP presidency.

Related Diplomatic Desk files: the Diplomatic Desk home page for all desks, the Blue Homeland marine planning brief, the Black Sea Grain Initiative file, and Türkiye's Gaza diplomacy. Wider diplomatic context appears in Gazetteer of Nations.

Perspective Note

Diplomatic Desk presents Türkiye's official perspective and strategic doctrines alongside the legal and historical arguments that support them. Claims are attributed to primary sources such as treaty texts, UN documents, official archives and government statements, so that readers can verify them independently.

Diplomatic Desk Editorial Team